BrainStormings - 腦震蕩: 2008

Thursday, November 06, 2008

Song - Eagles - Hotel California

On a dark desert highway, cool wind in my hair
Warm smell of colitas, rising up through the air
Up ahead in the distance, I saw a shimmering light
My head grew heavy and my sight grew dim
I had to stop for the night
There she stood in the doorway;
I heard the mission bell
And I was thinking to myself,
�this could be heaven or this could be hell�
Then she lit up a candle and she showed me the way
There were voices down the corridor,
I thought I heard them say...

Welcome to the hotel california
Such a lovely place
Such a lovely face
Plenty of room at the hotel california
Any time of year, you can find it here

Her mind is tiffany-twisted, she got the mercedes bends
She got a lot of pretty, pretty boys, that she calls friends
How they dance in the courtyard, sweet summer sweat.
Some dance to remember, some dance to forget

So I called up the captain,
�please bring me my wine�
He said, �we haven�t had that spirit here since nineteen sixty nine�
And still those voices are calling from far away,
Wake you up in the middle of the night
Just to hear them say...

Welcome to the hotel california
Such a lovely place
Such a lovely face
They livin� it up at the hotel california
What a nice surprise, bring your alibis

Mirrors on the ceiling,
The pink champagne on ice
And she said �we are all just prisoners here, of our own device�
And in the master�s chambers,
They gathered for the feast
The stab it with their steely knives,
But they just can�t kill the beast

Last thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
�relax,� said the night man,
We are programmed to receive.
You can checkout any time you like,
But you can never leave!

Monday, November 03, 2008

song - James Taylor - You've got a friend

When youre down and troubled
And you need a helping hand
And nothing, whoa nothing is going right.
Close your eyes and think of me
And soon I will be there
To brighten up even your darkest nights.

You just call out my name,
And you know whereever I am
Ill come running, oh yeah baby
To see you again.
Winter, spring, summer, or fall,
All you have to do is call
And Ill be there, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Youve got a friend.

If the sky above you
Should turn dark and full of clouds
And that old north wind should begin to blow
Keep your head together and call my name out loud
And soon I will be knocking upon your door.
You just call out my name and you know where ever I am
Ill come running to see you again.
Winter, spring, summer or fall
All you got to do is call
And Ill be there, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Hey, aint it good to know that youve got a friend?
People can be so cold.
Theyll hurt you and desert you.
Well theyll take your soul if you let them.
Oh yeah, but dont you let them.

You just call out my name and you know wherever I am
Ill come running to see you again.
Oh babe, dont you know that,
Winter spring summer or fall,
Hey now, all youve got to do is call.
Lord, Ill be there, yes I will.
Youve got a friend.
Youve got a friend.
Aint it good to know youve got a friend.
Aint it good to know youve got a friend.
Youve got a friend.

Partnership 打油詩

出錢做股東
出力收人工
意見一致不容易
打工易過做股東

Saturday, November 01, 2008

Lemon Grass (Serai) prompt cancer cells to commit suicide

Whether true or not, lemon grass sure smells good in your foods.
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> By Allison Kaplan Sommer - April 02, 2006
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> A drink with as little as one gram of lemon grass contains enough citral to prompt cancer cells to commit suicide in the   test tube. Israeli researchers find way to make cancer cells self-destruct - Ben Gurion University
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> At first, Benny Zabidov, an Israeli agriculturalist who grows greenhouses full of lush spices on a pastoral farm in Kfar Yedidya in the Sharon region, couldn't understand why so many   cancer patients from around the country were showing up on his doorstep asking for fresh lemon grass. It turned out that their doctors had sent them.
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> 'They had been told to drink eight glasses of hot water with fresh lemon grass steeped in it on the days that they went for their radiation and chemotherapy treatments ,' Zabidov told ISRAEL21c. 'And this is the place you go to in Israel for fresh lemon grass.'
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> It all began when researchers at Ben Gurion University of the Negev discovered last year that the lemon aroma in herbs like lemon grass kills cancer cells in vitro, while leaving healthy cells unharmed.
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>>>The research team was led by Dr. Rivka Ofir and Prof.Yakov Weinstein   incumbent of the Albert Katz Chair in Cell-Differentiation and Malignant Diseases, from the Department of Microbiology and Immunology
> at BGU.
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>>Citral is the key component that gives the lemony aroma and taste in several herbal plants such as lemon grass (Cymbopogon citratus), Melissa (Melissa officinalis) and verbena (Verbena officinalis.)
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>>>According to Ofir, the study found that Citral causes   cancer cells to 'commit suicide: using apoptosis, a mechanism   called programmed cell death.' A drink with as little as one gram of   lemon grass contains   enough Citral to prompt the cancer cells to commit suicide in the test tube.
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>>>The BGU investigators checked the influence of the   Citral on cancerous cells by adding them to both cancerous cells and normal cells that were grown in a petri dish. The quantity added in the concentrate was equivalent to the amount contained in a cup of regular tea using one gram of lemon herbs in hot water. While the Citral   killed the cancerous cells, the normal cells remained unharmed.
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>>The findings were published in the scientific journal * Planta Medica* , which highlights research on alternative and herbal remedies. Shortly afterwards, the discovery was featured in the popular Israeli press.
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>>>Why does it work? Nobody knows for certain, but the BGU scientists have a theory.
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> In each cell in our body, there is a genetic program which causes programmed cell death. When something goes wrong, the cells divide with no control and become cancer cells. In normal cells, when the cell discovers that the control system is not   operating correctly for example, when it recognizes that a cell contains faulty genetic material following cell division - it triggers cell death, ' explains Weinstein. 'This research may explain the medical benefit of these herbs.'
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>>The success of their research led them to the conclusion that herbs containing Citral may be consumed as a preventative measure against certain cancerous cells.
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>>>As they learned of the BGU findings in the press, many physicians in Israel began to believe that while the research certainly needs to be explored further. In the meantime it would be advisable for their patients, who were looking for any possible tool to fight their condition, to try to harness the cancer-destroying   properties of Citral.
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> That's why Zabidov's farm - the only major   grower of fresh lemon grass in Israel - has become a pilgrimage destination for these patients. Luckily, they found themselves in sympathetic hands.Zabidov greets visitors with a large kettle of aromatic lemon grass tea, a plate of cookies, and a supportive attitude.
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>>>Zabidov knew from a young age that agriculture was his calling. At age 14, he enrolled in the Kfar Hayarok Agricultural high school. After his army service, he joined an idealistic group, which headed south, in the Arava desert region, to found a new moshav (agricultural settlement) called Tsofar.   We were very successful; we raised fruits and vegetables, and,' he notes with a smile, 'We raised some very nice children.'
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>>On a trip to Europe in the mid-80s, he began to become interested in herbs.Israel, at the time, was nothing like the trend-conscious cuisine-oriented country it is today, and the only spices being grown commercially were basics like parsley, dill, and coriander. Wandering in the Paris market, looking at the variety of herbs and   spices, Zabidov realized that there was a great export potential in this niche. He brought samples back home with him, 'which was technically illegal,' he says with a guilty smile, to see how they would grow in his desert greenhouses. Soon, he was growing basil, oregano, tarragon, chives, sage, marjoram and melissa, and mint just to name a few.
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>>His business began to outgrow his desert facilities, and so he decided to move north, settling in the moshav of Kfar Yedidya, an hour and a half north of Tel Aviv. He is now selling 'several hundred kilos' of lemon grass per week, and has signed with a distributor to package and put it in health food stores.
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>>Zabidov has taken it upon himself to learn more about the properties of Citral, and help his customers learn more, and has invited medical experts to his farm to give lectures about how the Citral works and why.
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>>He also felt a responsibility to know what to tell his   customers about its use. 'When I realized what was happening, I picked up the phone and called Dr. Weinstein at Ben-Gurion University , because these people were asking me exactly the best way to consume the Citral. He said to put the loose grass in hot water, and drink about eight glasses each day..'
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>>Zabidov is pleased by the findings, not simply because it means business for his farm, but because it might influence his own health.
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>>Even before the news of its benefits was demonstrated, he and his family had been drinking lemon grass in hot water for years, 'just because it tastes good.'
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Sunday, October 26, 2008

song - Olivia Newton John - Magic

Come take my hand
You should know me
I've always been in your mind
You know that I'll be kind
I'll be guiding you

Building your dream
Has to start now
There's no other road to take
You won't make a mistake
I'll be guiding you

You have to believe we are magic
Nothin' can stand in our way
You have to believe we are magic
Don't let your aim ever stray
And if all your hopes survive
Your destiny will arrive
I'll bring all your dreams alive
For you

From where I stand
You are home free
The planets align so rare
There's promise in the air
And I'm guiding you

Through every turn I'll be near you
I'll come anytime you call
I'll catch you when you fall
I'll be guiding you

You have to believe we are magic
Nothin' can stand in our way
You have to believe we are magic
Don't let your aim ever stray
And if all your hopes survive
Your destiny will arrive
I'll bring all your dreams alive
For you

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Ref : How to gamble

Ref : Profit Factor
source : The wisdom of the ages in acquiring wealth / by Welles Wilder

pf = (potential gain * chance) / potential loss

Pf : profit factor
potential gain : if you win, how much you will get
potential loss : if you lose, how much you will lose

If a player wants to win in a long run consistently, he must have pf
greater than 1.
Otherwise, he will be 100% sure to lose in a long run.

Ref : How to gamble
source : http://faculty.winthrop.edu/morrisr/Gambling.htm

How to Gamble
Actually, this isn't about how to gamble, it's about the mathematics
of gambling. So in a way, you're being suckered in the same way the
gambling industry lures its victims. But if you understand a few
things about the mathematics of gambling, you may, in fact, learn "how
to gamble."

There are two basic facts to know about gambling. The first is that in
every game of chance offered by gambling casinos, the gambler will
lose in the long run. There is one exception I will get to later on,
but even that's only an apparent exception, not a real one. Take
roulette, for example, the easiest game to analyze mathematically. An
American roulette wheel has 38 slots positioned around its
circumference. Eighteen of these are red, 18 are black, and 2 are
green. The red and black ones are numbered from 1 to 36, the green
ones are numbered 0 and 00. The simplest bet to make is $1 on either
red or black. If the ball lands on the color you bet on, you win back
the original $1 plus an additional $1, a total payoff of $2. If the
ball lands on the other color or 0 or 00, you lose your bet of $1. The
probability of your winning is the number of ways you can win, 18,
divided by the total number of slots on the wheel, 38, or 47.37%. It
would be an even bet if the two extra slots weren't there, resulting
in the house edge. It would also put the casinos in the business of
offering free entertainment. And they aren't.
If you make repeated bets on one color, as described above, and it
doesn't make any difference which one, you will end up receiving back
an average of 94.74 cents on every dollar bet, or a payback of 94.74%.
It turns out that this payback is exactly double the probability of
winning on a simple $1 to $1 bet and it also simplifies the discussion
of gambling probabilities. This is because every gamble has a payback
associated with it and it means the same thing for any bet. In the
case above, you will get back only about 95 cents for every $1 you put
at risk over the long haul. You will certainly win on some bets, and
you may win on a series of bets. You may even win for a night,
especially if you don't make a lot of bets. But in the long run, you
will lose. If you don't understand this, you are a potential problem
gambler.

There are of course other variations to roulette. In addition to
betting on one color, you can bet on combinations of one number, two
numbers, three, four, five and so on. If you're wondering which one's
the best, don't spend a lot of time at it. With one exception they all
have exactly the same payoff as betting on one color-94.74%. The
exception is betting on a combination of five numbers. The payoff here
is 92.1%, making it the worst bet. So much for strategy.
Most long-standing casino games and their variations have a payoff of
about 95%. Blackjack is a little higher and craps is the best of all,
assuming you ignore most of the more complicated betting options.
These side bets usually make things worse for the gambler. There is
one version, however, taking free odds, which produces an astoundingly
high payback of 99.13%. The player still loses, of course, but more
slowly.

Just about the worst form of gambling ever, in terms of payoff, is
video poker, once popular in South Carolina. The average payback for
video poker was 72%, as reported by the gambling industry itself.
(They prefer to be called the "gaming" industry on the spurious
assertion that through skillful play the gambler can somehow win. With
a payback of 72%, it's obvious who is "winning," and we can continue
to refer to them as the "gambling" industry.) So, you'll still lose in
the long run playing video games, you'll simply lose a lot more and a
lot faster. The reporting was accomplished on the honor system, by the
way, so the 72% payback may not be entirely accurate.
The second thing to know about gambling is that when individual bets
are independent of one another, it is impossible to devise a betting
system that will alter the underlying odds against you. "Independent"
means that the game has no memory from one bet to the next. In
roulette, for example, the wheel has an 18 out of 38 chance of landing
on red the first spin and the second spin and also the 100th spin. It
never varies unless the wheel somehow becomes unbalanced, an event
unlikely to alter the odds materially. A craps game constitutes a
series of independent bets because you're rolling dice and the dice
cannot remember what happened on the previous roll. As in the previous
section, you have to qualify things a little bit when talking about
video games. They rely on a computerized random number generator. I
have a good deal of experience with random number generators on PCs
and can tell you that they are, for all intents and purposes,
independent from one number to the next. I don't have any proof, but
suspect that the generators in the computer games are independent
also. A nagging skepticism tells me that if they aren't, they benefit
the operator, not the player.
Anyway, gamblers use various "systems" to try to beat the games. In
the simplest of these, the Martingale, or "double if you lose" system,
the gambler doubles the previous bet until he wins, thus "assuring"
that he will eventually win. In fact, he usually does win. But a
little analysis reveals the essential weakness of the method. Suppose
you bet a dollar and lose. Bet $2 on the second bet and lose again.
Bet $4 on the third bet, $8 on the fourth bet and so on. Let's suppose
you bet and lose on 9 successive bets. Your bet on the 10th one will
be $512. If you finally win on the 10th bet, how far ahead will you
be? You will be ahead by exactly $1, the amount you bet the first
time. Now, add up all the bets you made. You will find that you have
put at risk a total of $1,023. This is a lot of money to win just $1
and it illustrates the underlying flaw in the system. Even though you
will usually win, when you lose, you lose big. Sooner or later you
will lose everything you have. In one computer simulation, I lost 19
times in a row before I finally won on the 20th bet, putting at risk a
total of $1,048,575, all to win just $1. This was assuming a payoff of
80%. Very few people have a big enough bankroll to support this
strategy.
A mathematical analysis of a Martingale system will reveal that its
payback is exactly that of any of the individual bets. The reason is
that this system, as any other, consists of a sequence of individual,
independent bets, each with the same probability of winning and each
with the same payback. Altering the sequence of bets does nothing to
alter the odds of the individual bets. I have simulated this system,
along with others, on a computer and confirmed that it does not, in
fact, help the gambler.
Before getting back to gambling, there's at least one similarity
between gambling and the stock market (lately, there may not be much
difference). Many investors pick stocks on the basis of price
performance. They draw charts of stock prices and use these charts to
decide on when to buy a stock. It's called charting, or technical
analysis. In its simplest version, if a stock bottoms out and then
starts to climb, you should buy. If it peaks and then starts to
decline, you should sell. So you're buying and selling on trends. The
problem is that price movements may in fact be independent of one
another. If they are, these "trends" are imaginary and you can't beat
the market using technical analysis. The reason you can't follows
pretty much the same line of reasoning that says no system will work
for independent gambles. There are an awful lot of statistical studies
demonstrating that, prior to the 1990's, stock prices exhibited
independence, at least enough so that, after commissions, you couldn't
beat the market. You see, prior to the 90's large institutions
dominated the market: mutual funds, college endowment funds, pension
funds and so forth. These institutions hire high-priced analysts to
study stocks and they do a pretty good job of determining value, at
least a good enough job that they have a hard time outguessing one
another. There are a lot of studies showing this also, again prior to
the 90's, so that a stock's price at any particular time reflects all
publicly available information and is affected only by randomly
occurring outside events. This is why the term "random walk" is often
used to describe stock prices. To be more precise, stock prices follow
a process known as "random walk with upward drift," because they tend
to go up over time. During the 90's, for various reasons, many
individual investors starting making their own investment decisions.
Many of these investors were not, to put the kindest face on it,
particularly knowledgeable. (If you don't believe that, look at how
many people violated the cardinal rule of investing-diversify!-and put
all their money in one stock. And not just Enron employees!) When
enough unknowledgeable investors buy stocks on the basis of stock
movements, their actions will cause further price movements, and
trends may occur. These trends sometimes turn into bubbles, and that
was one of the big problems in the 90's. If you're interested in
further study along these lines, get a reputable investment book and
look up the Efficient Market Hypothesis.

A few paragraphs ago I mentioned that there is one exception to the
rule that every casino game results in a long-run loss to the gambler.
That exception is blackjack. Blackjack lends itself to a "system"
because, unless a new or reshuffled deck is used for every deal,
successive deals are not independent. A statistician, E. O. Thorpe,
devised a counting system in the 1960s that worked, briefly, to alter
the odds in favor of the bettor. I say "briefly" because when the
casinos realized they were being snookered they started adopting ways
to nullify this and other counting systems, such as more frequent
reshuffling of decks. If these don't work, they simply kick the
gambler out of the casino. It's actually kind of funny. Even if you
can legitimately win, they don't let you.
Remember the title, and how I conned you into reading this under the
pretense of teaching you "how to gamble?" Well, here's how-Don't!